FRANCISCO OLIVARES
EL UNIVERSAL

Pro-government leader Eliécer Otaiza's statement of "people should get ready to hate gringos," veiled another, more significant and worrisome remark about what should be actually considered in the event of a war.

Otaiza explained that "in the event of a war (with the United States) the Venezuelan army would be totally dismantled (...) People should be trained to be aware of the enemy and realize that confronting it may take at least from seven to nine years."

Therefore, Otaiza bears in mind that the army is not prepared to resist an attack from a superpower and provides a choice for an asymmetric war. Once the Venezuelan army is defeated, organized reserves and defense grassroots forces would resist the attack.

Is the army ready to face a foreign military attack?

Instead of giving a yes/no polar answer, following is the first of two issues intended to weigh the situation of the Venezuelan army in the context of South American defense.

Making war

Renowned theoretician Sun Tzu, whose works are the pillow book of Army Commander Raúl Baduel, stated two centuries ago that "nobody can make war if he lacks the means to make it." He advised that an army could take action provided that there is money, operational capacity and mobilization. "When a country is impoverished as a result of military operations, this is due to distant transportation, carrying supplies..." How much will it cost? "Government expenses to replace broken cars, bolter horses, armor and provisions take up to 60 percent of a nation wealth." Is Venezuela or any other Latin American country able to make war?

Crumbled belief

The military secrecy enjoyed by Latin American armed forces for many years originated the myth of efficient organizations ready both to ensure defense and lead the nation destiny because they were composed of highly skilled individuals. Due to military secrecy, not much was known about their background.

Surveys conducted usually found a high level of credibility and acceptance of the army.

However, from 1982, when the Falkland Islands war was waged by Argentina and the United Kingdom, all the myths shattered into pieces. That year, the military were supposed to ensure Argentinean security and defense. But reality showed that they were not prepared to confront the enemy. All defensive and offensive mechanisms failed.

Lieutenant General Martín Antonio Balza, the Argentinean commander responsible for the operations, wrote: "Being a war prisoner makes room to reflect on what we have learned. The images of senior officers teaching security and defense plummeted that 13th day of June... So many years wasted speaking of sovereignty, freedom, strategy... And we were not sovereign or free or strategists."

The troops' testimonies mirrored the frustration of Argentinean military officers who lacked training. While the Argentinean could not win the war against the British, they could indeed confront a British aircraft carrier with 30 assault aircrafts and a full assault team. It was a nation in the sea.

While the Falkland Islands war disappointed the Argentinean people, at least it helped dispel the big Latin American lies. "You (the military) were ruling us and did not even serve for what you were supposed to serve." It was the reaction of disappointed people who preferred to be soccer fans rather than advocating sovereignty and nationalism.

The big shift

There was a great commotion in the Latin American armies due to the failed Argentinean experience in 1982. Revision and redefinition of the concepts of security and defense began. Venezuela was never involved. Dramatic changes occurred in remaining Latin American countries, particularly in the Argentina-Brazil-Chile axis.

Civilians and military learned from the events in Argentina and made efforts at proposing sustainable development and separating the military from politics.

Then, the concept of comprehensive defense emerged as a policy to develop strategic military components; make progress and enter into long-term strategic partnerships for the purposes of sustainable technological development.

The Sun Tzu's concept -no war can be waged if there are no means available- was patently obvious in the Falkland Islands.
folivares@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado