FRANCISCO OLIVARES
EL UNIVERSAL
 
Recent procurement of weapons, the establishment of military reserve, and the statements of senior military officers, government speakers and the Venezuelan President show that Venezuela has anticipated a potential war with the United States, through Colombia. Accordingly, the government military policy and the decisions made are consistent with a new concept of Venezuela beyond the US scope and improving links with other parties.
 
Winds of change blew in the army as soon as President Hugo Chávez took over in 1999 and set to produce a revolution.
 
Based on this assumption, Venezuelan military policy included Fidel Castro and Cuba as major partners.
 
Plausibility
 
Government analysts are aware that the United States has no reason to seek the support of the US people for a direct conflict with Venezuela. There is no way to persuade them of the need to invade Venezuela. But the Venezuelan government does anticipate a potential military escalation through Colombia, protected and supported by the United States. It is a possibility in terms of defense, because Colombia is the major US ally in South America and world experience shows that the United States has used third parties to face potential foes.
 
Therefore, the Venezuelan government is getting ready. One of the first steps included standardization of military equipment relative to its major military ally, i.e., Cuba. Hence the decision of buying Russian AK 103 and 104, 7.62 x 39 mm rifles.
 
The main reason for such a decision has been ignored in the debate, i.e.: weaponry standardization relative to Cuba. Such rifles and ammunition were chosen because they are similar to the weapons used by the Cuban army. This is the case for Russian choppers. Also, the procurement of Mig 29 aircraft has been planned. While no official decision has been made known, discussions have been underway for two years. Last but not least, the uniform of the Venezuelan army now fits in the Cuban model. US and Colombian claims of military unbalance are irrelevant. A changing trend is most important here.
 
It should be noted that replacement of FAL rifles was a need of the Venezuelan army since 1997. It was a very heavy rifle that had been discarded in most nations.
 
The Venezuelan army intended to supersede FAL. The first decision made was to replace 7.62 x 61 with 5.56 x 45 ammunition, which is the one used at NATO. This was a logical step as Venezuela was aligned with western democracies. Also, the German HK6.36 rifle had been chosen. Such a move was at a standstill until President Chávez defined a new military strategy.
 
Venezuelan defense strategy seems logical. Breaking off military relations with the United States, departure of the US military mission from Venezuela and termination of the Unitas joint exercise program are part of this assumption.
 
The symptoms

Prior to any armed conflict, a public opinion battle needs to be waged, as shown by the Venezuelan government statements with regard to Colombia and the United States. Additionally, changes in the economic strategy are made. Recently, US President George W. Bush asked the US Congress to favor oil drilling in Alaska. He argued that output there is half Venezuelan oil exports to the United States. Concomitantly, he requested from Saudi Arabia to increase production by 500,000 b/d.
 
In an attempt at persuading President Chávez to lower the tone, José Dirceu, the envoi of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva and head minister of the civil cabinet, warned: "The United States can buy oil from any nation, but Venezuela will not find a buyer as relevant as the United States."
 
In the event of stopping oil exports to the United States, Venezuela may lose at least USD 17 billion annually, whereas the United States will be able to survive for two years with domestic oil reserves.
 
Effects on the economy should be borne in mind in the event of war. This means losing 30 percent of income and economic blockade. Venezuela would be out of the financial system, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. As a result, no bonds could be placed in the world market and an additional 30 percent of the income would be at stake. All these things considered, mobilization of the army and the reserves would be burdensome.

folivares@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado

From the Editing Room: Due to an involuntary mistake, it was stated in the prior issue that war theorist Sun Tzu lived two centuries ago, instead of two millenniums ago. According to historians, the author of "The art of war" lived in 400-300 B.C.