ELVIA GOMEZ
EL UNIVERSAL

In the opinion of independent candidate Teodoro Petkoff two weeks ago, a three-party deal submitted by him last June 5th, along with Julio Borges (Primero Justicia) and Manuel Rosales (UNT) is alive and kicking. However, so far, at least the guidelines are in "social death."

The leaders met last July 22nd in Caracas to discuss the issue of the survey. However, they will report on the outcome of the meeting the week beginning July 31st. Notices of upcoming meetings are pending despite regular contacts among their respective campaign teams.

As a matter of fact, the delegates of the three-party group have made joint requests from the National Electoral Council (CNE) on conditions and revision of the census.
 
The official beginning of the election campaign is approaching. It would not be reckless to anticipate that circumstances will make more than one candidate who promised not to split the opposition, enroll in a hurry with no intention to withdraw.

Screening
The national unit agreement was premised on the selection of a single candidate. He or she should be chosen by agreement, screening, surveys or primary election. The latter was to be implemented if no definition was made before the beginning of August.

While NGO Súmate affirmed that arrangements of primary election are running smoothly, members of the campaign teams involved commented last week, "this is terrible" or "it is going very bad."

The end of the July 24-28 week is to be decisive to clear doubts. The animosity prevailing in past civilian mobilizations is wasted away. Some civil society sectors have volunteered to help in primary elections; provided, however, that the winner should subsequently herald abstention.

The same is not cheating
Recently, Juan Carlos Caldera, a member of Primero Justicia national management, complained about advantageous position in election. The claim apparently targeted only President Hugo Chávez, who is running for re-election. However, Caldera insisted on saying that the standard to regulate the use of public funds ought to be "the same for everybody" and advertising should be "strictly institutional." Competitors, he added, should quit in case of holding a position in the Executive Power.

In the event of primary elections including Julio Borges and Manuel Rosales, it is clear that the governor of western Zulia state will take the lead, and not only because he is top in the surveys concerning intention to vote.

Spontaneous mobilization of voters in primary elections will be feeble in a hardly enticing process. Rosales has the advantage of his platform as a governor to go ahead. In Zulia state, Chavezism, despite its nationwide high profile, has been kept within bounds. The state has the second largest constituency following central Miranda state.

Both Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo, and Borges' Primero Justicia are in the practice regional organizations, no matter what their leaders proclaim as national sphere of influence.

The disadvantage for Borges, in addition to a shrinking budget to promote his candidacy, is that the political enclave of Primero Justicia is in the central area, just where Chavezism is stronger and opposing voters are prone to abstention.

The probe
Absolute numbers in the surveys that measure both affinity and intention to vote in the case of the signatories of the three-party agreement can vary according to the pollster. However, ranking does not change: Manuel Rosales, Julio Borges and Teodoro Petkoff.

Petkoff's campaign team has conceded that his candidacy has not taken flight. However, it is a significant political cross reference for the dissent and the midpoint sector of disgruntled Chávez' supporters. Surveys have also one thing in common: the three nominees are still at the bottom.

Regardless of the decision of Julio Borges and Manuel Rosales to enroll in the process that Súmate vowed to carry out, the three campaign teams continue thinking about contracting jointly a pollster firm able to define the best bidder.

However, the pollster field work is lagging behind. Therefore, this procedure will not help either to clear doubts about a useful date to prevent multiple enrollment of candidates from August 3rd.

The segment of interviewees under the item "Does not know / No answer" is about a third out of the total. Accordingly, there is need to clarify the true, underlying view of such potential voters. Just here is where much time has been spent, one of the individuals involved in the query strategy explained.

It is said that sometimes, such segment is fourfold the segment supporting the candidate top in the ranking. In view of such degree of uncertainty, the survey is untrustworthy. As a result, a checklist including indirect questions is been tuned up.

Uncertain future
All in all, the future for the sector of Venezuelans at odds with the Government looks uncertain in the face of the presidential election of December 3rd . It seems that there will be no definition of the desired leader.

It seems that there is no possibility to resume the three-party agreement. The pact was mainly aimed at going beyond the electoral moment. A hardly plausible, but not unattainable, possibility is that Julio Borges and Manuel Rosales decide to make a presidential formula, including a vice-president.

In this regard, a member of Petkoff's team thinks that his candidate would be ready to back such a proposal. However, he dared to rule out any possibility, as he feels that both Borges and Rosales intend to be competitors.

egomez@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado