SARA CAROLINA DÍAZ
EL UNIVERSAL

During his campaign for re-election in 2006, President Hugo Chávez has been a candidate completely different from the candidate he was in 1998. He is no longer the irreverent, bold man who led the political establishment back in 1998 to take desperate measures that eventually resulted in a defeat they have not overcome to the present date. This time, Chávez has chosen to take a less winding road: a few rallies, a few tours, and no marches in the streets.

According to Ignacio Suárez, a Social Sciences Professor at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) and a sociologist, Chávez' about-face on behavior, as well as his immobility, are the result of him believing he is the winner and, therefore, he feels there is no need to risk a victory he is taking for granted. "Chávez is saving efforts and playing cards in a conservative way. He is acting like a conservative candidate. Chávez is sure the majority will vote him and he is avoiding taking risks that may put his re-election at stake."

One of such risks would be Chávez' overexposure as candidate in the electoral process (yet not as President, with all of the paraphernalia and propaganda it involves). In Suárez' view, any setback, such as the possibility that campaign rallies are not attended by huge crowds, could destroy myths such as "that of the invincible leader, among others." "That is why he (Chávez) is so passive."

Suárez, however, is certain that Chávez wishes he was even more conservative and would have rather kept the campaign with the slogan of love going. In Suárez' view, such a strategy was crushed, as pro-Chávez Caracas Metropolitan Mayor Juan Barreto recently reignited the language of polarization, as he threatened to execute a series of expropriations. Subsequently, the Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramírez said the state-run oil firm Pdvsa needed to be "red, absolutely red" -the color of Chávez' revolution.
 
According to Suárez, following Barreto's and Ramírez' remarks, Chávez was forced to resume his combative strategy, which involves a lower political cost in the long run. "He was not in the position to provoke a conflict on the eve of the election by censoring Barreto and Ramírez."

While in the past he vowed to vindicate the rights of Venezuelans by fostering a constitutional reform, Chávez promise during the present electoral campaign is vaguer, and focus on moving forward with the revolution. "Nobody in Venezuela voted a revolution, but a change in the Constitution and a government that focused more on social issues. Everything related to socialism and revolution was sold by Chávez afterwards. Now, people would actually vote the 21st Century Socialism," Suárez explained. He reminded that in 1998 and 2000 Chávez -while being in office- used his strengths as a candidate. But now he is doing otherwise: his administration's achievements have permeated his campaign, but he is not acting as a candidate.

"Candidate Chávez has performed on the platform of President Chávez, and all he has done is inaugurating railroads, healthcare centers or granting degrees to university students."

During the nationwide strike in 2002-2003  -intended to remove Chávez from power- the opposition used an empty slogan: "Chávez is leaving" that lacked any content. Now, the Government has borrowed such a slogan and claims: "Chávez is not leaving", but once again, such a slogan lacks any content.

Chávez' "electoral offer is chiefly a challenge: I am staying until 2021 and I need more time to consolidate this process."

Translated by Maryflor Suárez R.
msuarez@eluniversal.com