ALBERTO GARRIDO
SPECIAL FOR EL UNIVERSAL

US President George W. Bush tour in Latin America -Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Uruguay and Mexico) is the end of Washington's present diplomatic offensive against Hugo Chávez' Bolivarian revolution, and shows agreement -following years of divergences (2004-2007)- between the Pentagon hawks and the US political-oil strata as to the need to counter the Bolivarian projects' ambitions in the domestic arena (socialism of the 21st century), in the hemisphere (the planned Bolivarian Confederation of Nations) and worldwide (a multi-polar world).

The US counterattack is aimed at several targets. First, preventing Chávez from continuing to move southwards. In this sense, Washington intends to neutralize both Brazil and Argentina by negotiating on issues of common interest such as energy (with Brazil) and Iran-related topics (with Argentina). The ultimate goal is to stop Chávez' plans to turn the Common Market of the South into a Latin American body where political anti-US stances prevail over plain economic integration. Washington's proposal is simple: it intends to acknowledge Brazilian and Argentinean regional leaderships in South America, while warning them not to meddle with the impending Andean conflict.

In order to counter the Venezuelan oil diplomacy, Washington suggested an energy deal with Brazil for production and trade of biofuels allowing the US to curb energy dependence on oil. Together, the US and Brazil amount to around 70 percent of the world ethanol production.

Further underscoring Washington plans to encourage an alliance with Brazil in the energy sector, Nicholas Burns, the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, told newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo that Brazils "is the most powerful country in South America." Burns added that his country did not want to depend on oil from "countries such as Iran and Venezuela."

"Energy has become a big diplomatic issue. Energy has tended to distort and expand the power of some countries beyond the power they should probably have," Burns said.
 
The "Observatory" of Brazil and Argentina
Neither Brazil nor Argentina is to severe ties with Chávez because businesses rule. However, they are not going along the revolutionary path with the Venezuelan ruler either.

Paraguayan Minister of Foreign Affairs Rubén Ramírez last February 14th offered a news conference to inform that Venezuela had submitted -on that same date- to the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) a diplomatic protocol (called Protocol of Usuhuaia), under which Caracas pledged to respect the democratic system. According to Ramírez, "Mercosur established a body called Democratic Observatory -comprising representatives of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay- to closely monitor the evolution of political facts in Venezuela."

The Paraguayan diplomat stressed that Venezuela "must comply with other requirements, such as removal of tariff barriers on a long list of items in the region, officially withdraw from other regional bloc to which it was a party and, further, enact laws enforcing Mercosur customs resolutions."

On the other hand, negotiations between Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Bolivian counterpart Evo Morales in connection with the issue of the Bolivian gas resulted in agreements allowing Brazilian state firm Petrobras to return to the arena of investments in Bolivia, after such business were left chiefly in the hands of Argentinean and Venezuelan state oil firms Pdvsa and Enarsa, respectively. The renewed offensive Brazil is launching in the energy sector in Bolivia includes a bilateral hydroelectric powerhouse on their common border, a biodiesel powerhouse and a gas-chemicals production compound.

While the price of gas supplied to the thermal powerhouse of Cuiabá was raised (from USD 1.09 to USD 4.20 per million BTU), it is still lower than the price Argentina pays (USD 5) and than the price Chile pays Argentina, which includes a tax Argentina charges to offset the price increase Bolivia decreed. The issue of Bolivia's exit to the sea is still pending. In La Paz the prevailing thesis involves exchanging gas for an exit to the sea, with sovereignty over the relevant territory, but the Chilean Armed Forces are opposed to this possibility. The issue of Bolivian gas will cause a lot of work and Brazil has regained its own weight in Bolivia.

Andean Plan and military solution
The key issue is whether the US offensive in Latin America will only focus on diplomacy and energy, as US spokespeople have claimed so far, or whether it will become a beachhead for future military scenarios. Venezuela, together with the so-called "Triple Border" (including Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay), is comprised in the Pentagon anti-terror map. Major General Gerald P. Minetti, coordinator of the 64-country coalition taking part in the Central Command (Centcom), told reporters that "both in Venezuela and the triple border, Al Qaeda is conducting activities aimed at collection of funds, recruitment, facilities and preparation of activists for future attacks." (MacDill Air Base, Florida, on November 24th, 2006).

The Pentagon can now justify such a statement, as reports have been disclosed showing that Osama bin Laden's group has decided to sabotage the flow of oil to the United States by targeting oil suppliers in the Western Hemisphere, including Venezuela.

"The military solution" to the "Venezuela affair" could be in Colombian-Andean Plan (a war hypothesis addressed in a number of statements made by the Venezuelan Minister of Defense Raúl Baduel), if the conflict between Colombia and Ecuador ends up in a militarized conflict (Ecuador Plan) and Venezuela chooses to intervene or whether a domestic rebellious movement tries to overthrow President Evo Morales in Bolivia and Chávez, as announced, helps the Bolivian Government.

Another front is that of the strategic alliance between Venezuela and Iran. The White House has moved to install in the Persian Gulf the largest military deployment ever since 2003. The presence of aircraft carriers "John Stennis" and "Eisenhower," together with a significant number of escort ships, represents a bad presage in the Middle East, despite official statements that "the US will not attack Iran." Bush submitted to the Congress a military budget amounting to USD 716 billion in 2008, above the sum spent during the Vietnam War and out of which USD 325 billion are earmarked for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, while the remaining USD 400 billion have been earmarked for general defense expenses (while health, education, housing and other budget have been cut, thus leaving the US virtually with a war economy). This means that the Marines' guns are pointing to every direction. The US had not incurred in such heavy war expenses since World War II.

There is a lot to see and say as to what can happen over the next few months under the concept of global war, but the hawks are playing their cards and making bets of no return.

Translated by Maryflor Suárez R.
msuarez@eluniversal.com

Alberto Garrido
EL UNIVERSAL