The ministries of Planning and Finance are building the scenarios
to estimate the Venezuelan budget for 2008.
Macroeconomic premises such as crude oil price, exchange
rate, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are currently
under analysis.
Assessments comprise six oil-related scenarios. The first
scenario estimates the oil price at USD 30 per barrel, with
other scenarios where the oil price is calculated at USD 33,
USD 35, USD 40, USD 45, and USD 50. This time, the experts
are presenting a high-price scenario, as opposed to previous
fiscal years.
Anyway, official sources said experts are likely to use again
conservative values, as they did in previous budgets.
In the 2007 budget, the oil price was estimated at USD 29
per barrel. The oil price currently averages USD 59.22, for
a USD 30 surplus.
Oil output levels are yet under consideration. In 2006 and
2007 budgets, oil production was put at 3.4 million barrels
a day. However, last November, when output was 3.2 million
bpd, Venezuela cut production to 2.47 million bpd, under OPEC.