Politics
Director of the Strategic Study Center, Metropolitan University, Fernando Gerbasi was twice ambassador to Colombia and also chief of mission in Brasilia.

Whatever happens in Honduras, do you reckon that the expansionist project of Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez is out of the game in that country?
I would not say that it is completely out of the game, but on standby for the time being; at least for two years, in my opinion. Everything will depend on governance of the authorities to be elected on November 29th. Now, the role played by Brazil was not only in principle to replace (Honduras deposed President Manuel) Zelaya, but to prevent the advance of the Chávez's project in Central America. And it does it in coordination with the United States.

If Brazil and the United States curbed Chávez's expansionist project in Honduras, could they make it elsewhere in the hemisphere?
Yes, because there is growing awareness of the danger represented by Chávez. Hence, US persons, such as New York District Attorney Robert Morgenthau, spoke up about the threat to the US national security of the Iran-Venezuela ties. Also, two US Congress Representatives recommended including Venezuela in the list of terrorist countries. But Chávez himself strives to give that impression, as he purports to turn the ALBA (Bolivarian Alternative for the Peoples of our America) into a military force; renaming it Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas. Not by chance the Venezuelan government gave Ecuador Mirage fighters equipped with missiles and a Venezuelan retired general went there to shout "Homeland, Socialism or Death!"

Could this bloc make progress in the face of alliances, such as that of Colombia and the United States?
Some other governments, such as President Alan Garcia's administration, are aware of this situation and there are also allies moving farther away from the Venezuelan model, such as Uruguayan presidential candidate José Mujica or the Presidents of Paraguay and Salvador, Fernando Lugo and Mauricio Funes. On the one hand, the ALBA is stronger and can recruit new, small partners. On the other hand, there are reactions to the Venezuelan model, with the Latin American leftwing getting closer to social democracy, such as that of Lula.

But in the Bariloche summit no president, except for Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, complained about Chávez's expansionism.
He did not even denounce it accordingly. There is in the region much fear of Chávez. And this happens because Chávez's legitimacy is still argued, because, as he has won elections, he is supposed to be a democrat. At the same time, there is growing awareness that democracy is violated in Venezuela; of human rights abuses; that the president retains all public powers and changes laws on a whim. Venezuela is a pressure cooker and should we not release the exhaust valve, the cooker will end up bursting. Everything will depend on the steps to be taken by Chávez as part of his foreign policy, which most of the time goes to the extent of delusions of grandeur.

A cumbersome partner in Mercosur
"The intervention of (Caracas Metropolitan) Mayor Antonio Ledezma, who requested the Brazilian Senate Venezuela's entry into Mercosur was instrumental in the decision adopted afterwards. At the same time, though, it was noted that our country should meet the commitments made by the integration bloc under the democratic clause. Now the Venezuelan government is facing a very sensitive situation, because the doors have been opened, pending Paraguay's decision, and once this happens, (the Venezuelan) political management will be monitored.

Why such monitoring was not made beforehand, before the entry?
The leader of the Brazilian pro-government group alleged that they are not interested in ongoing political events in Venezuela. For them, what matters is Venezuela's membership of Mercosur, because in this way a geo-economic reality to the benefit particularly of Brazil and of the bloc as a whole will be materialized in the long term.

So, Brazil does not give a damn about the Venezuelan political reality.
Economic interests prevailed. Brazilian exports to Venezuela have soared, to such an extent that they have a surplus of more than USD 4 billion. It is also said that Brazilian businesses have contracts in Venezuela for about USD 20 billion. In the meantime, Venezuela, which lacks an industrial and export policy, went from USD 800 million in exports to Brazil in 1998 to USD 98 million only in 2008. Therefore, the economy vision took precedence over politics, and this could harm Mercosur.

Why?
Because Venezuela could become a very inconvenient partner due to its rebel stance, its plans to spread the revolution over the region. And that foreign policy is glaringly in conflict with Mercosur interests.
rgiusti@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado

Roberto Giusti
EL UNIVERSAL