ESPACIO PUBLICITARIO
CARACAS, Friday November 09, 2012 | Update
 
|
share
|
FINANCE

Oil price to define adjustment to the foreign exchange rate

Economists foresee imminent devaluation

If the foreign exchange rate is adjusted, inflation will amount to 26% in 2013 (File photo)
YANETH FERNÁNDEZ |  EL UNIVERSAL
Friday November 09, 2012  12:53 PM

Despite the Government's rejection, economists are confident that an "imminent adjustment" to the foreign exchange rate will be made in 2013.

Director of think tank Ecoanalítica, Asdrubal Oliveros, indicated that the firm foresees an increase in the foreign exchange rate from VEB 4.30 to VEB 6.30 per dollar in the Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (Cadivi) and to VEB 7.50 per dollar through the Transaction System for Foreign Currency Denominated Securities (Sitme).

Nonetheless, Ecoanalítica reckons that the Government relies on other means to make the respective adjustment. For instance, it may keep the same rate for Cadivi (VEB 4.30 per dollar) and increase Sitme's rate from VEB 5.30 to VEB 9.00 per dollar.

In either case, this will lead to a weighted devaluation at 46% and a net effect at USD 19.6 billion, enabling the Executive Office to rely on further resources for public expenditure. 

Oliveros said the adjustment to the foreign exchange rate to VEB 6.30-VEB 7.50 per US dollar will depend on oil price. If the oil price floor is above USD 100 per barrel, a slight adjustment will be made. However, if said floor is below USD 80, the adjustment may be to VEB 7.50 per USD dollar.

The firm added that if the adjustment is made, inflation in 2013 may account for 26%, being, therefore, above the Government's estimate (14-16%).

yfernandez@eluniversal.com

Translated by Jhean Cabrera
|
share
|
ADVERTISING SPACE
Dossier
Is protest over?

That political protest in Venezuela has lost momentum seems pretty obvious: people are no longer building barricades to block off streets near Plaza Francia in Altamira (eastern Caracas), an anti-government stronghold; no new images have been shown of brave and dashing protesters with bandanna-covered faces clashing with the National Guard in San Cristóbal, in the western state of Táchira; and those who dreamed of a horde of "Gochos" (Tachirans) descending  in an avalanche to stir up revolt in Caracas have been left with no option but to wake up to reality.

fotter clasificados.eluniversal.com Estampas
Alianzas
fotter clasificados.eluniversal.com Estampas
cerrar